基于面板数据模型的商品住宅价格上涨作用机理及实证研究——以西部地区7个中心城市为例

商品住宅价格上涨过快的现象,引起了广泛关注。探寻商品住宅价格上涨的作用机理显得非常重要。利用面板数据模型,对西部7个中心城市2002-2008年的商品住宅平均价格的实证研究表明:西部中心城市商品住宅价格形成过程中,起到显著作用的有城镇居民可支配收入水平、商品住宅竣工面积和国内生产总值三个主要动力因素。     

房产税试点立法与税收立法权的法律规制

上海、重庆两地房产税试点立法引起业界对地方房产税收立法权的合法性质疑。本文从地方税收立法权的法律界定入手,深入分析探讨此次试点立法之所以引起合法性质疑的制度性原因,进而提出遵守税收法定主义、明确税收立法权的法律界定、限制地方税收立法权等完善制度的建议和看法。     

房屋建筑中漏缝的成因及控制

房屋建筑的实践表明,住宅产生裂缝的原因和类型很多,本文针对产生裂缝的原因和类型进行了分析,关提出了尽可能地在材料、施工过程、设计初期对裂缝问题进行有效控制的相应对策,相信这次研究会对完善房屋建设工作有着至关重要的作用.     

中美房地产土地杠杆研究

本文通过引入可反映地价与房价间比例关系的土地杠杆假设,把土地杠杆值作为研究影响房价变动的显著性因素来考虑;认为房价对市场冲击做出反应的程度正相关于土地杠杆大小,高土地杠杆地区面对同样的经济冲击做出反应的程度也大。通过研究中美两国的房地产土地杠杆情况,分析其历史变动趋势和区域差异,发现两国土地杠杆值均呈现随时间不断上涨的态势;与美国情况相比,我国整体上土地杠杆值不高,但在一些大城市如上海,土地杠杆值很高且涨幅显著,需要引起重视。     

Asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate: evidence from the Australian capital cities

We examine the dynamic and asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in mortgage interest rates in Australia from January 1995 to November 2017. We propose a threshold intervention model to distinguish between the effects of positive versus negative changes in the standard variable interest rate. The results indicate that rising interest rates decrease house prices more than falling interest rates increase them. For example, a 1% decrease in interest rates increases Sydney’s house prices by 0.7%, whereas a 1% increase leads to a 1.5% fall. The findings also support the view that when interest rates are on the rise, house prices in larger capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne fall faster than in their smaller counterparts. Our findings imply that a rise in interest rates may thus lead to sharp, fast and significant falls in house prices, a phenomenon which will not simply be a symmetric unwinding of earlier price increases.     

房价与经济波动的区制转移——基于STAR系列模型的实证研究

本文运用平滑转移自回归(STAR)系列模型定量分析了1998-2010年间我国经济波动区制转移(Regime Transition)过程及房价波动在其中的作用。研究结果表明,我国经济在受到外生刺激时会产生跳跃冲动,但能否出现区制转移现象取决于外生刺激的持续性,单纯依靠以往经济的表现不能充分地解释这种现象;房价作为外生变量有效地解释了经济波动中存在的动态转移过程,这表明房价波动中存在着先行信息并可用于预测未来经济走向。此外,经济波动转移过程并非不可逆转,足够的反向推动力能够扭转经济势头,这使得政策干预成为可能。     

住宅特征价格指数编制现状的国内外比较分析

住宅价格指数是反映房地产市场价格变动趋势的重要指标,特征价格法作为住房价格指数的编制方法之一已被国外普遍使用。在阅览大量文献和国外相关资料的基础上,对目前国际上编制住宅价格指数的三种主流方法进行归纳总结,并对我国三大住房价格指数的编制现状进行比较评析,提出关于完善我国住宅价格指数的构想:构建以国家统计局为编制主体,传统加权综合指数和特征价格指数并行发展的住宅价格指数体系。     

近代日本老工业城市发展过程中"社宅街"的形成、演变及改良

"棚户区"改造是我国老工业城市更新改造的难点和重点。近代日本在矿工业快速发展的过程中也面临类似的问题,即"社宅问题"。日本的"社宅"发展在不同历史时期内表现出不同的形态特征和具体问题。日本政府为解决这些问题出台过多项政策,并开展了相应的工程实践。文章介绍了日本"社宅"产生的时代背景、各历史时期的具体特征和改良政策,分析论述了1970年代末期开始的"小规模矿区居住区改良工程"的实施办法,提出了日本"社宅"改造对于我国的借鉴意义。     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

论阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》两个版本系统

阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》对十三经注疏作了一次较为全面系统的正本清源工作,故阮刻《十三经注疏》成为诸本中较善之册。追溯阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》的成书过程,辨述版本流变,考证阮校实有两个版本系统：一是嘉庆十三年文选楼单刻本,一是嘉庆二十一年南昌府学合刻本。两本相校,互有异同。现流传较广的中华书局本《十三经注疏校勘记》的底本是南昌府学本,有待于参用文选楼本重加整理。